Starmer's Supporters Launch 'Stop Andy Burnham' Effort to Prevent Mayor's Parliamentary Comeback
Loyalists of Labour leader Keir Starmer have allegedly started a concerted effort to stop Andy Burnham, the Labour Mayor of Greater Manchester, from making a return to the House of Commons. This move follows the resignation of a Manchester MP, which has triggered an upcoming byelection.
Significant Barriers in the Candidate Selection Procedure
Several members on the party's ruling national executive committee (NEC) have apparently predicted it would be highly challenging for Mr. Burnham to navigate the candidate selection procedure. This is largely due to the significant number of Starmer loyalists on the body who are keen to avert any future challenge to Starmer's leadership.
The party apparatus reportedly swung into action following the revelation of the MP's intended departure, with officials and MPs voicing warnings about the substantial financial cost and political risk of a subsequent mayoral race in Greater Manchester.
The Mayor's Aspirations and Internal Disquiet
Andy Burnham has been open about his national ambitions. Last year, he caused outrage within No 10 and among cabinet ministers when he stated that many MPs had urged him to run for the Labour leadership.
It has long been believed that he is seeking a seat in the Commons to potentially stand for the party leadership if a contest to Sir Keir emerge. Nevertheless, supporters of the Mayor have cautioned against exaggerating the level of any scheming, suggesting he is passionate about his job as mayor and would only re-enter national politics if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a supporter stated.
Current Climate and Public Approval
Amid opinion polls suggesting Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's prospects at the next election, Andy Burnham stands out as the only senior Labour personality with favourable public approval ratings.
If Mr. Burnham choose to stand, several hurdles stand in his way. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the odds are stacked against him—and then win the byelection against challenges from Reform UK and pro-Gaza independents, all before any possible leadership challenge.
Efforts to Block Burnham
High-ranking Labour figures have indicated that a "Block Burnham" campaign is already under way, with the party's organisation being closely managed by key allies of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister himself said that the byelection process was in its "early stages" and urged his MPs to stop talking about possible contests for the leadership.
Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's departure was finalised, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Costs and Risks
NEC members have reportedly pointed to not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could redirect an estimated ÂŁ500,000 in campaign funds from other crucial elections across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," an insider claimed.
Several sources also shared fears about Reform UK potentially fill any vacancy left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major symbolic victory for them.
Union Influence and Democratic Concerns
As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to stand. There is also speculation the committee could enforce an women-only shortlist to prevent his candidacy.
Yet, one Burnham ally warned against assuming the NEC would simply reject him, even though Sir Keir's team is widely thought to dominate it.
The trade unions occupy a significant number of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are currently keeping their counsel, insiders suggested they would be opposed to anything perceived as meddling from Downing Street.
The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
Electoral Challenges
The seat in question has a considerable Labour majority. However, Reform is likely to launch a strong campaign, capitalising on support in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on firmer ground in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter a challenge from independent candidates.
If Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to launch a bid for the leadership, a hurdle that is not guaranteed given he is viewed with scepticism by a number of on the backbenches.
The resigning MP stated he was resigning due to deteriorating mental health, which had made it untenable for him to continue in his role. He also remains under a standards inquiry concerning his membership in an offensive online group.
