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Well. On one hand, the nation's long-running bid to host the Cop31 next year has ended in clear failure.

The effort ran for over 36 months for the rights to host the largest global environmental conference and green trade fair, which would have attracted many thousands of people to the South Australian capital next November.

That's not happening. Instead, the summit known as the UN climate meeting is headed to the tourist destination of the Turkish coastal city, on the Turkish Mediterranean.

Letdown and Conflicting Signals

This outcome will be a significant disappointment to numerous individuals who had believed organizing the environmental gathering could help speed up the country's shift from being a carbon-based economy to a clean energy leader, and bring international focus to the existential plight facing island countries in the Pacific, who would have been co-hosts.

The process that resulted in defeat has been an opaque mess. Recently, there have been doubts that the prime minister and other high-ranking officials really wanted the proposal to be approved. His statements were ambiguous at best. This led to reports in the local and global press saying the administration was walking away.

This contrasted with the communication being conveyed at the Cop30 talks in the city of Belem, where the Australian climate change minister, the climate minister, had just declared the country was "in it to win it".

Uncertain support is a recurring problem for Australia's Cop31 bid. While the minister supported it, other senior members of the government have only sometimes appeared to care.

DFAT, traditionally responsible for international climate negotiations, has been disengaged and sometimes outright opposed.

Evidence suggests the prime minister has viewed international climate meetings a priority. He hasn't attended one since becoming prime minister in 2022. We'll never know, but many may question if more could have been done to secure the hosting rights.

An Alternative View

That's one interpretation. But there is another way to look at it.

In the context the Cop30 talks this week in South America – and from an global viewpoint – the announcement on Wednesday night may, ironically, have been the most favorable outcome available.

Bowen set out on that day an novel agreement that he was working on with his Turkish counterpart, Murat Kurum. The Turkish government would be the Cop president, host and effective event manager, and the Australian delegation – Bowen himself – would assume a role as "president of negotiations", managing nearly 200 countries on the matters that the nations actually attend for – the discussions on how to together address the climate crisis.

Additionally, there would be a increased emphasis on the Pacific, including a lead-up event on an island nation.

Grounds for Scepticism

Multiple reasons exist for scepticism. Turkey and Australia do not have a close relationship. The details of the deal had not been finalized at the moment of announcement. The whole thing could collapse before it begins.

But it could also be a way to salvage something useful from what appeared to be an approaching car crash for the international cooperation on global warming.

The Turkish government is generally viewed in the global community as having been determined on causing havoc in the UN climate process. This framework is supposed to work by unanimous agreement. Typically, that means if there are several nations in the competition those with less support either withdraw gracefully, or a compromise is quietly done to encourage them to exit the race.

Turkey plainly had weaker endorsement than the joint Pacific proposal to organize the summit. Approximately 24 of the 28 countries responsible for selecting next year's venue had backed the southern pitch.

However, exceptionally, Turkey declined to withdraw. The term "bastardry" has been thrown around in the past week, and not just by Australians.

Geopolitical Context

Turkey's obstinacy can be interpreted as a manifestation of the divided international landscape. With the US absent under the former president, there has been no dominant nation with the influence to stare down the petroleum exporters that offered the Turks with certain protection.

President Erdoğan is considered close to Vladimir Putin. Several nations feared a summit obstructed from the leadership if his administration led the negotiations. And the Germans did not want to have to organize an unprepared climate conference at the UN environmental office in the German city, which is what would have occurred under international regulations if the stalemate wasn't broken.

A Creative Solution

A path through was necessary. The UN system is imperfect and often disconcerting to watch, but global cooperation has empirically had an impact in the battle with climate change. The Turkey-Australia arrangement is a innovative solution that maintains progress when it is needed more than ever.

Notwithstanding understandable criticism of the federal administration over its contradictory stance for expanding carbon-based exports, climate activists who participate in international meetings see the minister as a force for good in the negotiations. He has been asked to co-chair discussion groups at multiple summits he has attended.

This is significant. While certain critics have downplayed the importance of a "president of negotiations", experts from academic institutions and experienced analysts at climate talks say it is pivotal to their success.

"Each effective summit has been shaped by a president holding the pen who can understand, forge agreement and achieve an ambitious outcome. We saw that in the German capital in 1995, in the Mexican resort in 2010 and the French capital in 2015. The reverse happened in the Danish city in 2009," they note. "It's the most important role at the Cop other than making sure that delegates are fed."

Unanswered Questions

There are plenty of unresolved issues. As an illustration, non-governmental organizations plays a vital role at environmental summits. What, if anything, can the federal administration do to stop a crackdown on civil society by the Turkish leadership?

Perhaps not much. But that doesn't stop this arrangement appearing as the best chance possible to have a summit that may offer something for the Pacific region, Australia and the global community. It's worth a try.