Ten years following the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that split the nation and unleashed chaos, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the political, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say that moment is imminent, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unification has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in universities but very few politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, no writer advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Both composes two essays that strive for objectivity in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and societal figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions cover national emblems, taxes, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the concept that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters claim they support unity but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his generation is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, valid points, he commented. "Somebody will win here and the other side will eventually lose but both parties has possesses important lessons to learn from the alternative positions."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster should engage with the debate, urged O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
